Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.041544 0.046843 0.052717 0.059739 0.067942 0.077265 0.088725
2026-02-08 0.033845 0.040572 0.048617 0.059047 0.072353 0.088958 0.111561
2026-02-15 0.028338 0.035795 0.045319 0.058590 0.076948 0.101979 0.139642
2026-02-22 0.024393 0.032310 0.043053 0.059075 0.083047 0.118758 0.178373
2026-03-01 0.021179 0.029284 0.040908 0.059386 0.089201 0.137691 0.227786
2026-03-08 0.018142 0.026037 0.037924 0.057932 0.092537 0.153693 0.279928
2026-03-15 0.015158 0.022428 0.033822 0.053948 0.090898 0.161177 0.320914
2026-03-22 0.013505 0.020641 0.032315 0.054051 0.096703 0.184941 0.409810
2026-03-29 0.012312 0.019421 0.031554 0.055365 0.105388 0.218477 0.545339
2026-04-05 0.011124 0.018040 0.030294 0.055514 0.111941 0.250715 0.705167
2026-04-12 0.010061 0.016732 0.028964 0.055272 0.117749 0.284550 0.904789
2026-04-19 0.009023 0.015330 0.027242 0.053868 0.120550 0.312442 1.117914
2026-04-26 0.007992 0.013836 0.025159 0.051351 0.120161 0.332383 1.333382
2026-05-03 0.007357 0.013013 0.024309 0.051510 0.127193 0.381396 1.774746
2026-05-10 0.006804 0.012284 0.023544 0.051733 0.134722 0.438596 2.393770
2026-05-17 0.006370 0.011738 0.023089 0.052663 0.145010 0.516021 3.381273
2026-05-24 0.005967 0.011204 0.022583 0.053363 0.155093 0.603272 4.802247
2026-05-31 0.005503 0.010490 0.021561 0.052435 0.159365 0.668759 6.349619
2026-06-07 0.004952 0.009532 0.019843 0.049170 0.153930 0.680013 7.317856
2026-06-14 0.004664 0.009117 0.019369 0.049482 0.162649 0.783666 10.543837
2026-06-21 0.004456 0.008859 0.019244 0.050848 0.176570 0.941045 16.763663
2026-06-28 0.004215 0.008497 0.018806 0.051138 0.186245 1.086673 25.457432
2026-07-05 0.003978 0.008122 0.018284 0.051047 0.194366 1.237245 38.590456